Definitions for poker terms and phrases from A-Z listed alphabetically. Learn proper terms of poker in our dictionary! 100% Up To $600 or $100 tickets. Essentially, fold equity is the extra amount of equity you gain when you factor in how likely your opponent is to fold. Working out the correct amount of fold equity relies heavily on your ability to read an opponent. In other words, you need to be fairly certain of your chances to get an opponent to fold. The formula to work it out is as follows.

Fold equity is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no limit (or possibly pot limit) tournament. It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets. It equates to:

${\displaystyle \text{Fold Equity}=\text{likelihood that opponent folds}\ast \text{gain in equity if opponent(s) fold}}$

The first half of the formula can be estimated based on reads on opponents or their previous actions. The second part is the equity obtained when the opponent(s) fold to your raise (i.e. the total current pot), minus the equity resulting in case your opponent(s) call your raise (i.e. your showdown equity in the post-raise pot). As the post-raise pot is larger than the current pot, fold equity can be positive as well as negative.

Fold equity becomes an important concept for short stacks for the following reason. Opponents can be considered likely to call all-ins with a certain range of hands. When they will have to use a large percentage of their stack to make the call, this range can be expected to be quite narrow (it will include all the hands the caller expects to win an all-in against the bettor). As the percentage of stack needed to call becomes lower, the range of cards the caller will need becomes wider, and he or she becomes less likely to fold. Consequently, fold equity diminishes. There will be a point at which a caller will need a sufficiently small percentage of their stack to call the all-in that they will do so with any two cards. At that point, the all-in bettor will have no fold equity.

Example[edit]

Alice holds A♣6♥ playing against one opponent, Brian, who holds 2♥2♦. The flop is 9♠7♣3♦.

At this point, Alice has a pot equity of 31.5% and Brian has a pot equity of 68.5%. In other words, if there were no further betting and both players simply turned up their hands and were dealt the turn and river cards, Alice would be 31.5% likely to win the pot.

Because Brian's hand is so weak, though, and many hands that Alice might be playing can beat him easily, he may be 70% likely to fold facing a pot-sized bet. As such, Alice's fold equity is ${\displaystyle 70\mathrm{\%}\ast 68.5\mathrm{\%}=47.95\mathrm{\%}}$. Consequently, Alice can consider that her hand equity if she bets will equal ${\displaystyle 31.5\mathrm{\%}+47.95\mathrm{\%}=79.45\mathrm{\%}}$.However, Alice cannot be sure that her equity will increase if she bets because she cannot see Brian's cards.

Fold Equity Explained

If you have a 50% chance to win the hand, but betting will cause your opponent to fold 20% of the time, your overall poker equity increases:

No bet: 50% equity

Bet: 50% + (0.2 * 50%) = 60% equity

The size of the bet and the odds your opponent will fold will determine if this increase in equity is profitable in the long run.

Fold equity can become important in short stack situations in a no-limit holdem tournament. A basic example of fold equity is when a player pushes with a draw and allows himself to win one of two ways:

• He can hit his hand
• He can force the other player(s) to fold

In words the fold equity formula would read:

Our win odds + (percentage of times villain x his win odds)

Fold Equity Examples

Example 1

We hold {Ac) K♣ on a Q♠3♦9♥ flop on Americas Cardroom. For this example let’s assume we know villain is holding exactly 2♥2♠. We also know that this villain is going to fold the flop 67% of the time.

We have 28.2% win odds, the villain folds 67% of the time, and his win odds are 71.7%

28.2 + .67 (71.7) = 76.2% of winning

As you can see by betting we have almost tripled our odds of winning.

Example 2

Another way we can look at fold equity is how much is in the pot and our odds of winning by using a fold equity calculator. There are many fold equity calculators online, but most require four pieces of information:

• The effective stack size
• Our estimated equity
• Pot size
• How big of a bet are we making

For example, we are playing in a .25/.50 no limit game on PaddyPower. We raise in the cutoff with A♦6♦ to $1.20. A tight player on the button 3-bets to $3.20, we call $2.

The flop comes 2♦6♠9♦ with $7 in the pot.

We check and the button bets $4.60, making the pot $11.60.

Our information looks like this:

• Effective stack size: $21.70
• Estimated Equity: 43% (if the tight 3-bettor has AA)
• Pot Size: $11.60
• Our all-in bet size: $17.10

Plugging those numbers into the calculator we must believe the 3-bettor will fold more than 32% of the time for this to be +EV.

Fold Equity Chart

The chart below shows how much of a fold percentage you must have for having neutral EV.

A higher percentage than what is shown would be +EV, lower would be –EV.

Understanding Fold Equity Calculations

Poker Term Fold Equity Fund

If we run the above hand 3 times, we can see why he needs to fold more than 32%.

When he will folds we win the pot of $11.60, of which we invested $3.20. This gives us a positive return of +$8.40.

Two times he will call making the pot $50.40, which we will win 43% of the time. We invested $24.90 and have $21.67 of equity, mean we lose $3.23 each time he calls.

Poker Term Fold Equity

How much will we win or lose based on how often he calls?

Villain Folds 50% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 1 call (-$3.23) = +$5.17

Poker Term Fold Equity Definition

Villain Folds 33% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 2 calls (-$6.46) = +$1.94

Poker Term Fold Equity Formula

Villain Folds 25% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 3 calls (-$9.69) = -$1.09

Poker Term Fold Equity Calculator